![]() ![]() Controlling for all other factors, passes to the sideline just inside the white paint have a roughly 30% chance of completion. The probability of a completed pass decreases rapidly at 5 yards of sideline separation. Sideline Separation: As the distance between the receiver and the sideline decreases, the likelihood of a completion also decreases.The thickness of the each data point of the plot shows the density of passes for each level of target separation which suggests the majority of passes come with less than 4 yards of target separation. ![]() Target Separation: As the distance between the receiver and nearest defender increases, the likelihood of a completion also increases.Passes traveling more than 40 air distance yards have roughly a 20% chance of completion, while passes traveling 10 air distance yards have a roughly 80% chance of completion. Air Distance: As distance between the quarterback at the time of the throw to the location of the receiver at the time of the catch increases, the likelihood of a completion decreases. ![]()
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